By ERWIN CHLANDA
The Territory economy is picking up and next year it will go gangbusters, according to CDU Adjunct Professor Rolf Gerritsen (portrait at right).
“In the last ABS figures we are the fastest growing economy in Australia, albeit off a low base. Mining projects such as Nolans Bore rare earth (pictured above) and around Tennant Creek are coming on stream.
“The only people who are having difficulties are retail. Online shopping certainly has an effect on it.
“The constraints on the Alice Springs economy are structural – skill shortages. Any business could at least employ another person.
“You can’t find a tradesman in the pub during the day. That’s for sure,” says Prof Gerritsen.
“We need more housing in Central Australia. I don’t know if the extension of Kilgariff (at right) is going to solve that problem.
“Perhaps we need apartments attracting young trades persons and then they decide they want to stay here and move into a house.”
On the downside, hiring more social workers isn’t likely to fix the problems at which government spending of $180m over five years is targeted.
“Domestic Violence is a very serious problem but I suspect that’s what will happen.
“Social workers are useful once the violence has been committed but seem to be less useful to prevent the violence in the first place.
“The police could be more proactive but you know as well as I do, the police are called to an incident, such as someone beating up his missus. The missus agrees to press charges against him but when they get to court she refuses to proceed.
“The police hate domestic violence because it’s a crime where penalties cannot necessarily be enforced.”
Commenting on both major parties agreeing to the funding: “It was me-too policy making on the run during the election campaign” says the Alice-based CDU professor overseeing his final two doctoral students pre-retirement.
According to a media statement Minister for Prevention of Domestic Violence Robyn Cahill will provide a ministerial report on the issue of domestic and family violence.
“The CLP Government will comprehensively review [yesterday’s] Coronial recommendations into the tragic deaths of four Aboriginal women at the hands of their partners,” says Ms Cahill in the release.
“This inquest began 17 months ago, and it is critical we do not rush our response and take the time to work through it and engage with stakeholders.
Judge Elisabeth Armitage who conducted the coronial inquests into the deaths of Miss Yunupiŋu, Ngeygo Ragurrk, Kumarn Rubuntja and Kumanjayi Haywood, handed down 35 recommendations.
The Aboriginal women were killed by their domestic partners. The NT has the highest rate of domestic, family and sexual violence (DFSV) and the highest imprisonment rate in Australia.
“As an immediate response to preventing domestic violence, the ‘Reducing Crime’ package we introduced in the first sittings of Parliament have already been assented into law, which includes a presumption against bail for serious violent offenders.”
The Fines and Penalties (Recovery) Amendment (Validation) Bill 2024, described by Leader of Government Business Steve Edgington as a significant legislative priority, isn’t given much of a chance by Prof Gerritsen.
He expects a great proportion of the debtors would have left the Territory.
And as for the rest? “Stick them in gaol? I presume these are mostly traffic fines.”
Prof Gerritsen, while walking his dogs on the eastern bank of the Todd past Spencer Hill each morning, has opportunity for an alcohol survey “with a limited sample size”.
It is “where people camp over night and get on the piss”.
Mr Edington says in the statement about the minimum floor price which will be axed: “It has not delivered tangible benefits because it has driven people to higher content alcohol products such as spirits, and that is why we are getting rid of it.”
Prof Gerritsen says in his morning walks “I see a Whiskey or a Bourbon bottle every day, I see beer cans nearly every day. I did note a Bacardi bottle the other day and I thought, there’s some sophisticated drinking here.”
Prof Gerritsen says every so often he also finds goonbags – casks – an indication that smuggling of prohibited alcohol from Darwin or Port Augusta is taking place.
As for the drinkers Mr Edington suggests he has the answer: “We’ve already passed public nuisance drinking laws, which gives our police stronger powers to fine, charge, and arrest offenders in prohibited areas while ensuring those individuals are issued a seven-day Banned Drinker Order.”
Prof Gerritsen says the relocation of the art gallery is “a sop to the business owners in the top end of the mall so you can look up the mall and see the gallery at the end of it”.
He says the building should have been put in the Desert Knowledge Precinct: “Art is one aspect of Indigenous culture.
“There are already galleries in the town. They call them art shops.”
“The precinct allows you to accommodate a suite of tourist opportunities, showing them how Aboriginal people used the country. Having cultural events.
“That would be a world class attraction.”
The coronial report’s 35 recommendations include creating a Domestic, Family and Sexual Violence Interagency Coordination and Reform Office (DFSV-ICRO); whole-of-government coordination mechanism; peak body; workforce planning; interpreter service; alcohol intervention strategy involving victim survivors (including children) as well as perpetrators; multi-agency protection service; police command specialist; culturally appropriate court; trauma informed, mediation and peacekeeping for family and community violence; men’s prison-based behaviour programs and counselling; DFSV training for clubs and pubs.
In 1969 I gained employment in the NT, electrical, exploration and a few odd jobs.
Lived and worked in and around Alice, Limen River area, north east of NT and Arnhem Land etc.
I was informed by a well travelled and educated United States citizen, that Australia will be saddled with political and social problems from our “black folk”.
Did he have a crystal ball or was he not blinded by our “she’ll be right mate’ attitude, till it’s all too late?
Professor Gerritsen highlights revenue from mining to underpin his view that the NT economy will go gangbusters next year.
But the Professor’s evidence is unconvincing.
In 2022-23, the Territory’s income from mining fell by 9.9% but rebounded by about the same in 2023-24.
The rebound does not make us the fastest-growing economy.
The Professor cites new income streams from Nolan’s Bore and Tennant Creek Mining. But Arafura Resources is building its mine at Nolan’s Bore next year and will not enter production until 2026.
Tennant Creek Mining is also a 2026 story, with construction at their Nobles Gold Mine taking up most of 2025.
Due to the phenomenal rise in the price of gold, Newmont’s Tanami operations will pump more cash into our economy, somewhat offset by a lower rate of royalties they will pay.
Mining royalties should drive the economy as in WA, but the NT royalty system has hampered investment.
Slugging miners with a 20% royalty, four times higher than WA, killed investment.
Finally, this year, royalty rates were brought into line with WA’s, but it will take years to restore confidence and grow the mining industry.
The NT economy is unlikely to go gangbusters next year.
There are many cases where the missus refuses to proceed with a domestic violence charge, but a conviction results anyway.
The police collect the evidence and they are the complainant.
The court hears the police evidence, and the magistrate convicts and usually sends the offender to prison.
The offence victim tells members of her community how unfair the sentence is and how much she misses her attacker.
But when she talks with Corrections and Parole staff, she tells them she is pleased with the outcome and does not support early release on parole.