By ERWIN CHLANDA
The trouncing of Labor may be rivalled by the rise of the Greens when the 2024 election goes down in history.
In The Centre, Asta Hill got close to sitting CLP member Joshua Burgoyne, 2261 to 1937 votes on preferences in Braitling.
The Parliament has its first Green member, Kat McNamara, who beat former Chief Minister Natasha Fyles in Nightcliff by 36 votes after preferences.
And in Fannie Bay Suki Dorras-Walker was not far from the CLP’s Laurie Zio and outscored ALP front-bencher Brent Potter.
Final numbers were announced this morning.
“A lot of the Green votes were from Labor people who didn’t vote Labor,” says CDU Professor Rolf Gerritsen.
“That’s for a variety of reasons, some of them, I suspect, because they didn’t see Labor doing much about the crime problem, and others didn’t like the rightward shift, or pro development shift, that Eva Lawler strategically introduced three months before the election.
“I am surprised at the extent of the collapse of the Labor vote, particularly in Braitling. But Labor got flogged,” says Professor Gerritsen.
Hill scored three and a half times as many votes as the ALP’s Allison Bitar, a town council member, 1627 votes to 470.
No surprises in Namatjira and Araluen where, respectively, the CLP’s Bill Yan and Independent Robyn Lambley were returned, although the Greens’ Blair McFarlane got 671 primary votes, respectable for a late starter in Namatjira.
Chansey Paech, before the election the Deputy Chief Minister, clearly is getting no joy from the other three making up the rump of Labor.
Paech was returned in the remote Gwoja but that electorate’s performance in a western democracy raises troubling questions: 6132 voters are enrolled but only 42.1% of those actually cast a vote. It’s not known how many didn’t bother to get on the roll.
Professor Gerritsen says the system of encouraging participation in NT elections is flawed.
“When someone turns 18 [in fact it’s 16] they send them a letter. Sending a letter to an Aboriginal community is just a waste of time. Half of them have the same surname, they don’t bother with letters anyway.
“Blackfellers are saying, if I vote what will change? Nothing. It’s just another thing the government wants me to do and I don’t get anything out of it.
“In the old days the Electoral Commission sent teams out to communities and enrol people on the spot.
“Aboriginal people know enough about politics to say the only government that really impacts on our lives is the Commonwealth governments. So why bother participating in this charade Territorians call self government.”
As Chief Minister Eva Lawler lost her seat – her CLP opponent Clinton Howe nearly doubled her vote, 2731 vs 1473 – her erstwhile deputy seemed a likely choice to become Opposition Leader. But Paech is neither that nor the Deputy.
“I wonder if Chansey has been promised something,” says Professor Gerritsen.
“Not in the next Federal election but in the one after we’ll have an extra Senator, or an extra two. And you’d expect that to be one Labor and one Liberal.
“Am I guessing they said to Chansey, you won’t go over well in Darwin. So why don’t you wait and you’ll be the Senator.”
Professor Gerritsen says Selena Uibo is “probably the best selection for Opposition Leader because she won’t scare the horses.
“Labor will need to set up an office in Darwin and get some of the ex-pollies who lost their seats and campaign on behalf of Labor.
“It’s going to be more than two elections to get back.”
NEWS: What is Central Australia going to get out of the CLP government?
GERRITSEN: More policemen. More people in gaol. And that’s good for the economy.
NEWS: In what way?
GERRITSEN: Well, they have to be fed. They have to be looked after. So it’s important for employment. Indigenous incarceration adds to employment and business.
NEWS: We are trading in misery.
GERRITSEN: You can see from the recidivism rates, which are the highest in Australia, that gaol is not a very effective way in changing people’s behaviour. We’ve got to think of something smarter. The problem is that something smarter is more difficult. Whereas sticking people in gaol and keeping them there for a while seems to be Territory governments’ preferred approach.