By ERWIN CHLANDA
Alice Springs based CDU Professor Rolf Gerritsen and local historian Alex Nelson agree the CLP is likely to win the election on Saturday but they disagree about the impact of the Greens on the poll.
“I think the CLP will win. I think crime is the huge issue, and the economy,” says Prof Gerritsen.
“The economy is pretty much a sentiment in the electorate which says we’ve given them eight years, things are not better, so we try the other one. Great Australian reflex.”
Mr Nelson says: “I think the Greens and Independents are going to stand with a strong showing.
“In part that’s due to the two major parties being indistinguishable with their main policies, and voters will be looking for alternative options.”
In Braitling, which the CLP took off Labor in 2020, this could lead to the Greens getting a seat in The Centre, says Mr Nelson.
“Braitling covers an area of town which has long been thought of a good prospect for either Labor or the Greens, particularly where it covers the Old Eastside,” says Mr Nelson.
“Still, Dale Wakefield winning the seat for Labor in 2016 with an extremely narrow margin, was an exceptional event.
“This time a lot of people will be casting their vote for an alternative to the major parties. I note with considerable interest the number of people on the ground volunteering for the Greens.
“I’m told that they have more volunteers than they know what to do with. If that translates to wider support throughout the community there could be a surprise in the offing.
“Braitling is by no means a safe seat for Josh Burgoyne. It could be the case that preferences of the Greens’ Asta Hill will win the seat for Labor or the other way ‘round.”
Unlike Mr Burgoyne, as a lawyer Ms Hill would bring a background of frontline experience both as a prosecutor and defence counsel over many years to the sometimes virulent law and order debate.
But Prof Gerritsen says: “On Saturday night Josh Burgoyne will have a grin from ear to ear. His majority will be huge.” He predicts the same for the CLP’s Bill Yan in Namatjira.
NEWS: How will the Greens go?
GERRITSEN: If you look at the Territory elections they really have about 10% and to win a seat they’ve got to get a vote higher than the CLP or the ALP candidates. And I don’t think they’ll do that.”
NEWS: In that case, are they likely to hold the balance of power?
GERRITSEN: Absolutely unlikely.
The Greens and Labor are exchanging preferences in all seats in The Centre.
Braitling first preference votes in 2020 were Joshua Burgoyne (CLP, 1548 votes); Dale Wakefield (ALP, 993); Kim Hopper (Ind, 648); Scott McConnell (Ind, 199) and Marli Banks (Federation Party, 140).
Burgoyne (2256) defeated the incumbent Wakefield (2139) on preferences, by 117 votes.
GERRITSEN: I’m predicting the CLP will get 13 seats. In case they only get 12 the balance will be held by Robyn Lambley.
NEWS: Are you confident she will get back in?
GERRITSEN: Yes.
NELSON: I’m hard pressed to believe that Robyn Lambley would be unseated in this election.
GERRITSEN: The CLP will win back seats like Port Darwin and Fong Lim. Karama, which has nearly 9%, that’s Ngaree Ah Kit’s seat, I think the CLP will win it. Karama has the suburb of Malak in it, and that is Crime Central in the northern suburbs of Darwin.
Mr Nelson says the vote in Namatjira will be a toss-up: “I think the Greens’ Blair McFarland stands a top chance of polling extremely well.”
Namatjira first preference votes in 2020 were Bill Yan (CLP, 1066 votes); Sheralee Taylor (ALP, 977); Matt Paterson (Territory Alliance, 809); Nikki McCoy (Greens, 279); Catherine Satour (Federation Party, 344) and Tony Wells (Ind, 131).
It took the distribution of all preferences for Yan (1814 votes) to beat Taylor (1792 votes) by just 22 votes.
Mr Nelson says turnout in the western bush seat Gwoja is likely to be extremely low: “It’s difficult to say whether Chansey Paech will retain the seat although the odds will still be in his favour. There is an Indigenous candidate running for the CLP.
NEWS: Paech is Indigenous.
NELSON: Yes. And he has incumbency on his side. But I think everyone in the Labor Party is concerned about their prospects. There is a lot of disillusionment with their government as it’s been operating, especially in the bush seats which is reflected in the generally poor turnout of voters in election these days.
Says Mr Nelson: “We’ve been in this territory before. In 1990 we had a Government with 14 members, Opposition with seven, there were four independents or minor party candidates, three of whom had been members of a major party previously.
“The economy was in trouble and crime was skyrocketing and we had several Chief Ministers in the lead-up to that election.
“So we have an identical situation occurring right now with the twist that the party in government in 1990 was the CLP, which retained office comfortably. I’m not convinced that that would be case this time ’round for Labor.”
Mr Nelson is a former CLP member and candidate but resigned from the party in 1995 and “other than a brief dalliance with the Democrats in the late ’90s I’ve not had any involvement with any political party”.
ALP versus CLP, both major parties have had abundant time to demonstrate their poor record on social issues and youth crime, at the fore-front of thinking for most residents in this election.
Of course the population churn in Alice Springs brings with it a degree of voter naivety but for most long term residents, Independents and the Greens at least offer the possibility and hope of a change in direction in the quality of public discourse.
If they hold the balance of power, this might just translate into improved NT Government policy. I agree with Alex that Asta Hill will poll strongly in Braitling and is likely to win ALP preferences in the contest. I don’t make a habit of reading tea leaves but I think it will be a tight finish.
Asta’s mum has huge social capital in Alice Springs and that will likely erode some of the ALP’s rusted on support base.
If Asta had run as an Independent (with a solid background working within the justice system), I think she would attract more support from those conservative voters who carry weird fears of anything “green”. In any event I’m prepared to say she’s the candidate to beat.