Crime and social unrest are major electoral problems for the Labor government, not helped by social media tirelessly, and often misleadingly, bombarding the public with information.
By Professor ROLF GERRITSEN
Later this month we Territorians will vote in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly election. Recent opinion polls indicate a tightening contest as the Labor Government rallies under the surprisingly effective Ms Lawler.
Currently the CLP Opposition has a small lead and is generally tipped to win a majority of seats.
Normally, to predict elections psephologists and would-be pundits, like myself, rely on opinion polls. These are usually quite accurate about the general electorates’ voting intentions but sometimes misleading, even confounded, by the results in any particular electorate, which may produce an outcome that does not conform to the generality of the opinion polls.
Usually this is interpreted as the Member having a strong personal vote. The most-recently reported opinion polls here indicate that there is a recent swing towards independents.
Personally, I doubt that will carry through to election day. This is just some voters becoming aware an election is due and registering opinions designed to give their party a ‘wake-up” call.
Remember, a month before the 2020 election, the polls showed that the Territory Alliance had a higher primary vote than the CLP. We know how that turned out.
However, an American political scientist, Professor Lichtman of the University of California, has developed a model of predicting presidential elections that is highly accurate. He has correctly predicted nine of the past 10 presidential elections (in fact 10 out of 10, Gore really beat Bush Junior, who benefited from the crucial judicial exclusion of Democrat votes in black Florida districts).
Curiously Professor Lichtman has developed his election model from the models seismologists have developed to predict earthquakes. I have adapted Lichtman’s model in this case, to take account of institutional differences between the USA and Australia.
For instance, I have removed the variables relating to whether the President has won or lost a war. This does not seem germane to the Chief Minister’s role.
This is an exercise in whimsy. I do not want people stopping me in the street if my adaptation of Lichtman’s model does not accurately predict the coming Territory election!
So here are my 10, Lichtman-adapted variables.
Party Mandate
This category is included to take account of mid-term elections (in the NT context, by-elections).
Labor has won the two by-elections held since the last general election. So that category indicates some superiority to Labor. However, the CLP machinery has been overhauled since the former Chief Minister Shane Stone became President.
His reputation and recent donations declarations, suggest the Opposition is now better organised and attracting money from a wide spectrum of businesses. Consequently, this factor is probably neutral in my calculations.
Incumbent has no serious leadership challenges
The Chief Minister has the Labor Party unified behind her. This is as much an electoral necessity as the preference of at least one parliamentary colleague. Despite rumours of some dissatisfaction with Ms Finocchiaro, her feisty performance in the 2020 poll means she is secure in her bid to become Chief Minister. Again, I suspect that this factor is neutral.
Third Party
The presence of a significant third party may damage either of the major parties. In Australia that manifests via preferences. For example, Labor and other preferences for the Teals in the last Federal election led that Liberal-insurgent group to secure several seats and doomed the Liberal government to defeat.
In the Territory the Greens are the most permanent third party. They have never won a seat, which they could only do if they secured more first preference votes than either Labor or the CLP.
Effectively a Green vote is a Labor vote. Currently the Greens are very unhappy with the Lawler government. However, they face the “less-worse-of-the-alternatives” situation regarding their preferences. At this election, the Greens vote will probably be down and so reduce their advantage for Labor.
Consequently, the third party advantage to Labor is unlikely to affect the election result.
Current Economy
Here the CLP Opposition has a clear advantage. There is no economic growth at present, as the recent ComSec report starkly illustrated. Poor economic growth makes Labor vulnerable to CLP criticism. This is a strong variable against (deservedly or not) the current Labor Government.
Long Term Economy
From next year, the Territory economy will pick up as the implementation of several large projects will accelerate economic growth. However, that does not advantage Labor.
Appeals to future economic growth will not attract votes. Labor’s post-2020 election dithering with regard to economic growth, deferring decisions (eg on Beetaloo) has pleased neither the business community nor the conservationists. Chief Minister Lawler’s change of policy is not too late for the economy but it may be too late for the election.
Policy Change
This variable looks at whether the incumbent government is seen as responsible for significant change/s in policy. Major policy changes usually create new coalitions of supporters for a government.
Whether the incumbent government has achieved major changes in policy and outcomes is debatable. The suspicion/opinion that this Labor government has drifted since winning in 2020 has become entrenched.
It is a moot point whether the current Chief Minister has fully reversed that perception. The Greens are clear (and dismayed) about the government’s new economic and environmental policy directions, but I doubt the general electorate outside of the policy community are much aware of this “developmentalist” policy shift.
On the balance of probabilities, I doubt whether being in charge of the policy agenda has advantaged the government.
Social Unrest
Applying this Lichtman variable to the Territory we, inevitably, consider crime. This is a major electoral problem for the Labor government. The CLP is simply more believable with their “tough on crime” trope.
CM Lawler has promised more police, for an eye-watering cost of over $500 million. However, anyone who knows anything about police staffing levels knows that continuing attrition makes raising staffing levels harder than just accepting new recruits. Anyway, despite its intellectual vacuity, the CLP policy is an electoral winner.
Scandal
There have been minor scandals dogging the current Labor government. These have been covered in detail in the NT Independent but largely overlooked in the mainstream media. However, they were the ostensible reason for the previous Chief Minister’s resignation.
These scandals are markers of either a longer-lived government arrogantly getting careless with the detail or being too lenient with mates. Consequently, these minor scandals propel (and confirm?) the “been in for too long/time for a change” lines the Opposition has been running.
Incumbent Charisma
This Lichter variable reflects that Presidential elections in America are more about two individuals competing than it is about their parties. The Labor leader, Eva Lawler has adopted a no-nonsense approach and definitely made Labor more competitive. She has taken credit for curfews and described her policies as “tough love”. Lawler has made Labor competitive after early polls showed a landslide against the government.
Challenger’s Charisma
The current Opposition Leader, Finocchiaro, was the only CLP parliamentarian in a greater metropolitan seat to survive the electoral rout of 2016. She must be a capable campaigner.
In the 2020 election when she was – by lack of alternative – the Opposition Leader, she surprised with a feisty campaign that restored the CLP’s base vote in the greater Darwin region, where this coming election will be won or lost.
I think that Finocchiaro has performed respectably, has not spooked the public servants and has led the debate with some imaginative policy proposals.
I regards these last two “leadership” variables as about even in terms of impacting the result of this election.
If I presented this interpretation of his model to Professor Lichtman, he would conclude that the CLP will win the election.
Very concise and informative reading. Let’s hope something good comes out of the election later this month in the NT and the Federal Election in 2025. The election 2024 in the USA will equally be very interesting for the town of Alice Springs due to our friends at JDSRF. Lichtman, could be on the money.
This year isn’t the first time we’ve had a government with 14 members, opposition of seven, independents / minor party of four, poor polling for the government months out from the election campaign, a struggling economy, and rampaging crime.
The incumbent party won the election campaign and retained office comfortably.
I think it is much simpler. The urban people are furious with the ALP ideological refusal to deal realistically with serious crime, juvenile crime, and social conflict. The CLP has a get tough policy. That is what will win.